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Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1 % floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km² (low), 160 km² (medium), or 300 km² (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km² (low), 240 km² (medium), or 370 km² (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from earthquake-cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise, and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally. 

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km²(low), 160 km²(medium), or 300 km²(high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km²(low), 240 km²(medium), or 370 km²(high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally. 

Abstract The Patagonia Icefields (PIF) are the largest non-polar ice mass in the southern hemisphere. The icefields cover an area of approximately 16,500 km 2 and are divided into the northern and southern icefields, which are ~ 4000 km 2 and ~ 12,500 km 2 , respectively. While both icefields have been losing mass rapidly, their responsiveness to various climate drivers, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, is not well understood. Using the elastic response of the earth to loading changes and continuous GPS data we separated and estimated ice mass changes observed during the strong El Niño that started in 2015 from the complex hydrological interactions occurring around the PIF. During this single event, our mass balance estimates show that the northern icefield lost ~ 28 Gt of mass while the southern icefield lost ~ 12 Gt. This is the largest ice loss event in the PIF observed to date using geodetic data. 

Atmospheric and oceanic warming over the past century have driven rapid glacier thinning and retreat, destabilizing hillslopes and increasing the frequency of landslides. The impact of these landslides on glacier dynamics and resultant secondary landslide hazards are not fully understood. We investigated how a 262 ± 77 × 106 m3 landslide affected the flow of Amalia Glacier, Chilean Patagonia. Despite being one of the largest recorded landslides in a glaciated region, it emplaced little debris onto the glacier surface. Instead, it left a series of landslide-perpendicular ridges, landslide-parallel fractures, and an apron of ice debris—with blocks as much as 25 m across. Our observations suggest that a deep-seated failure of the mountainside impacted the glacier flank, propagating brittle deformation through the ice and emplacing the bulk of the rock mass below the glacier. The landslide triggered a brief downglacier acceleration of Amalia Glacier followed by a slowdown of as much as 60% of the pre-landslide speed and increased suspended-sediment concentrations in the fjord. These results highlight that landslides may induce widespread and long-lasting disruptions to glacier dynamics. 

An extensive plume of the emerging contaminant sulfolane has been found emanating from a refinery in Interior Alaska, raising questions about the microbial potential for natural attenuation and bioremediation in this subarctic aquifer. Previously, an aerobic sulfolane-assimilating Rhodoferax sp. was identified from the aquifer using stable isotope probing. Here, we assessed the distribution of known sulfolane-assimilating bacteria throughout the contaminated subarctic aquifer using 16S-rRNA-amplicon analyses of ~100 samples collected from groundwater monitoring wells and two groundwater treatment systems. One treatment system was an in situ air sparging system where air was injected directly into the aquifer. The other was an ex situ granular activated carbon (GAC) filtration system for the treatment of private well water. We found that the sulfolane-assimilating Rhodoferax sp. was present throughout the aquifer but was significantly more abundant in groundwater associated with the air sparge system. The reduction of sulfolane concentrations combined with the apparent enrichment of sulfolane degraders in the air sparging zone suggests that the addition of oxygen facilitated sulfolane biodegradation. To investigate other environmental controls on Rhodoferax populations, we also examined correlations between groundwater geochemical parameters and the relative abundance of the Rhodoferax sp. and found only manganese to be significantly positively correlated. The sulfolane-assimilating Rhodoferax sp. was not a major component of the GAC filtration system, suggesting that biodegradation is not an important contributor to sulfolane removal in these systems. We conclude that air sparging is a promising approach for enhancing the abundance and activity of aerobic sulfolane-degraders like Rhodoferax to locally stimulate sulfolane biodegradation in situ . 

We construct a stable homotopy refinement of quantum annular homology, a link homology theory introduced by Beliakova, Putyra and Wehrli. For each $$r\geq ~2$$ we associate to an annular link $$L$$ a naive $$\mathbb {Z}/r\mathbb {Z}$$ -equivariant spectrum whose cohomology is isomorphic to the quantum annular homology of $$L$$ as modules over $$\mathbb {Z}[\mathbb {Z}/r\mathbb {Z}]$$ . The construction relies on an equivariant version of the Burnside category approach of Lawson, Lipshitz and Sarkar. The quotient under the cyclic group action is shown to recover the stable homotopy refinement of annular Khovanov homology. We study spectrum level lifts of structural properties of quantum annular homology.